Important: This dashboard contains the results of a predictive model that was not built by an epidemiologist.

Note: Click a country name to open a search results page for that country’s COVID-19 news.

Based on data up to: 2022-11-10

Projected need for ICU beds

Countries sorted by current estimated need, split into Growing and Recovering countries by current transmission rate. Only for countries with ICU need higher than 0.1 beds per 100k. More details in Appendix.

Growing countries (transmission rate above 5%)

Estimated
current
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Projected
ICU need
per 100k
In 14 days		 Projected
ICU need
per 100k
In 30 days		 Pre-COVID
ICU
capacity
per 100k
🇬🇷 Greece 6.27 noisy data 5.0 ± 1.9 noisy data 6.0
🇩🇪 Germany 5.26 5.6% ± 1.8% 4.0 ± 0.5 2.8 ± 0.8 29.2
🇦🇹 Austria 5.01 8.9% ± 1.6% 3.7 ± 0.2 2.5 ± 0.3 21.8
🇯🇵 Japan 4.54 7.5% ± 2.2% 5.2 ± 1.3 noisy data 7.3
🇰🇷 South Korea 4.40 12.2% ± 3.9% 4.9 ± 1.2 noisy data 10.6
🇫🇷 France 3.93 13.6% ± 4.5% 3.3 ± 0.5 2.5 ± 0.9 11.6
🇸🇮 Slovenia 3.89 noisy data 2.9 ± 0.6 1.9 ± 0.8 6.4
🇫🇮 Finland 3.29 6.0% ± 0.4% 3.1 ± 0.1 2.8 ± 0.2 6.1
🇨🇭 Switzerland 2.78 noisy data 2.0 ± 0.6 noisy data 11.0
🇱🇻 Latvia 2.25 9.3% ± 2.9% 1.8 ± 0.2 1.3 ± 0.4 9.7
🇧🇳 Brunei 1.75 noisy data 1.6 ± 0.5 noisy data 13.1
🇦🇺 Australia 1.47 noisy data noisy data noisy data 9.1
🇱🇹 Lithuania 1.26 noisy data 0.9 ± 0.3 noisy data 15.5
🇨🇱 Chile 1.25 14.5% ± 3.6% 1.3 ± 0.2 1.4 ± 0.6 -
🇨🇦 Canada 1.06 noisy data noisy data noisy data 13.5
🇩🇰 Denmark 1.02 8.6% ± 2.1% 0.8 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.2 6.7
🇭🇷 Croatia 0.93 noisy data 0.7 ± 0.2 noisy data -
🇸🇪 Sweden 0.89 7.3% ± 0.5% 0.8 ± 0.0 0.7 ± 0.1 5.8
🇺🇸 US 0.87 noisy data noisy data noisy data 34.7
🇧🇪 Belgium 0.83 6.7% ± 1.5% 0.6 ± 0.1 0.4 ± 0.1 15.9
🇬🇧 United Kingdom 0.81 noisy data noisy data noisy data 6.6
🇭🇺 Hungary 0.76 noisy data 0.6 ± 0.1 0.4 ± 0.2 13.8
🇵🇹 Portugal 0.73 noisy data 0.6 ± 0.3 noisy data 4.2
🇲🇺 Mauritius 0.67 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇨🇿 Czechia 0.60 noisy data 0.4 ± 0.1 0.3 ± 0.1 11.6
🇲🇪 Montenegro 0.55 14.3% ± 3.3% 0.4 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.0 -
🇧🇬 Bulgaria 0.51 noisy data 0.4 ± 0.1 noisy data -
🇮🇸 Iceland 0.48 noisy data noisy data noisy data 9.1
🇸🇰 Slovakia 0.46 noisy data 0.3 ± 0.1 0.2 ± 0.1 9.2
🇮🇱 Israel 0.43 13.7% ± 6.1% 0.4 ± 0.1 noisy data -
🇲🇹 Malta 0.35 5.6% ± 1.5% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.1 -
🇳🇴 Norway 0.32 noisy data noisy data noisy data 8.0
🇮🇪 Ireland 0.31 noisy data noisy data noisy data 6.5
🇰🇲 Comoros 0.25 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇧🇷 Brazil 0.22 noisy data 0.3 ± 0.1 noisy data -
🇲🇾 Malaysia 0.22 9.5% ± 1.4% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.1 3.4
🇧🇭 Bahrain 0.20 16.8% ± 2.9% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.0 -
🇷🇴 Romania 0.19 8.4% ± 2.1% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 -
🇵🇭 Philippines 0.18 7.3% ± 2.1% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 2.2
🇶🇦 Qatar 0.14 5.1% ± 0.6% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 -
🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago 0.13 noisy data 0.1 ± 0.0 noisy data -

Recovering countries (transmission rate below 5%)

Estimated
current
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Projected
ICU need
per 100k
In 14 days		 Projected
ICU need
per 100k
In 30 days		 Pre-COVID
ICU
capacity
per 100k
🇹🇼 Taiwan* 7.48 4.8% ± 0.7% 5.9 ± 0.4 4.3 ± 0.6 -
🇸🇬 Singapore 3.25 4.1% ± 1.1% 2.4 ± 0.2 1.6 ± 0.3 11.4
🇮🇹 Italy 3.04 0.0% ± 0.0% 1.6 ± 0.0 0.7 ± 0.0 12.5
🇳🇿 New Zealand 2.67 noisy data 1.6 ± 0.4 noisy data -
🇱🇺 Luxembourg 1.84 noisy data 1.2 ± 0.3 noisy data 24.8
🇨🇾 Cyprus 1.28 0.0% ± 0.0% 0.7 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.0 -
🇷🇸 Serbia 0.73 4.7% ± 0.8% 0.6 ± 0.0 0.4 ± 0.1 -
🇳🇱 Netherlands 0.72 noisy data 0.4 ± 0.1 0.3 ± 0.1 6.4
🇪🇸 Spain 0.65 0.0% ± 0.0% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 9.7
🇪🇪 Estonia 0.61 noisy data 0.4 ± 0.1 0.3 ± 0.1 14.6
🇺🇦 Ukraine 0.40 0.1% ± 0.0% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 -
🇷🇺 Russia 0.38 4.5% ± 0.5% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.0 8.3
🇫🇲 Micronesia 0.34 0.0% ± 0.0% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 -
🇨🇷 Costa Rica 0.28 0.0% ± 0.0% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 -
🇺🇾 Uruguay 0.18 noisy data 0.1 ± 0.0 noisy data -
🇵🇱 Poland 0.17 noisy data 0.1 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 6.9
🇬🇪 Georgia 0.17 0.0% ± 0.0% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 -
🇬🇹 Guatemala 0.16 noisy data 0.1 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 -

Projected Affected Population percentages

Top 20 countries with most estimated recent cases. Sorted by number of estimated recent cases during the last 5 days. More details in Appendix.

Estimated
recent cases
during
last 5 days		 Estimated
total
affected
population
percentage		 Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Projected
total
affected
percentage
In 14 days		 Projected
total
affected
percentage
In 30 days		 Current
testing
bias
🇺🇸 US 300,422 61.1% noisy data 61.3% ± 0.3% 61.7% ± 0.8% 1.3
🇯🇵 Japan 279,010 18.6% 7.5% ± 2.2% 19.4% ± 0.3% 20.5% ± 1.1% 1.0
🇰🇷 South Korea 234,629 52.1% 12.2% ± 3.9% 53.5% ± 0.6% 55.2% ± 1.9% 1.0
🇩🇪 Germany 140,545 48.9% 5.6% ± 1.8% 49.4% ± 0.2% 49.7% ± 0.4% 1.0
🇫🇷 France 113,752 73.6% 13.6% ± 4.5% 74.1% ± 0.2% 74.5% ± 0.5% 1.0
🇧🇷 Brazil 99,422 99.1% noisy data 99.2% ± 0.1% 99.3% ± 0.2% 2.7
🇮🇩 Indonesia 91,483 24.4% 10.5% ± 2.8% 24.5% ± 0.1% 24.8% ± 0.3% 4.0
🇹🇼 Taiwan* 88,667 34.0% 4.8% ± 0.7% 35.1% ± 0.2% 36.1% ± 0.4% 1.0
🇨🇳 China 50,830 0.4% 6.2% ± 2.8% 0.4% ± 0.0% 0.4% ± 0.0% 1.0
🇵🇭 Philippines 39,357 45.3% 7.3% ± 2.1% 45.4% ± 0.0% 45.5% ± 0.1% 8.6
🇵🇪 Peru 38,588 nan% inf% ± nan% nan% ± nan% nan% ± nan% 6.8
🇦🇺 Australia 38,097 41.3% noisy data 41.8% ± 0.9% 42.3% ± 4.7% 1.0
🇨🇦 Canada 31,437 19.7% noisy data 19.9% ± 0.3% 20.2% ± 0.8% 2.3
🇬🇧 United Kingdom 28,688 63.6% noisy data 63.7% ± 0.2% 63.7% ± 0.8% 1.2
🇨🇱 Chile 25,465 62.1% 14.5% ± 3.6% 62.5% ± 0.2% 63.1% ± 0.5% 1.0
🇷🇺 Russia 19,530 53.3% 4.5% ± 0.5% 53.4% ± 0.0% 53.4% ± 0.0% 1.0
🇬🇷 Greece 17,542 61.6% noisy data 62.2% ± 0.6% 62.7% ± 1.4% 1.0
🇮🇳 India 16,732 19.0% noisy data 19.0% ± 0.0% 19.0% ± 0.1% 5.1
🇦🇹 Austria 15,024 69.9% 8.9% ± 1.6% 70.4% ± 0.1% 70.8% ± 0.2% 1.0
🇲🇾 Malaysia 13,005 45.4% 9.5% ± 1.4% 45.5% ± 0.0% 45.7% ± 0.1% 1.0

For world maps with all projections: world maps notebook

Interactive plot of Model predictions

Tip: Choose a country from the drop-down menu to see the calculations used in the tables above and the dynamics of the model.
Note: For stacked plots of all countries see world plots notebook